The threat of an “Islamic revolution” in Central Asia may intensify.
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics (Russia)
Experts in the Central Asian republics have noted a rapid increase in religious (Islamic) radicalism in the region since the end of 2023, as well as an increase in the popularity of general religiosity (some observers use the term “Islamization”).
This process is usually associated with several main factors:
1 - The Taliban* came to power in Afghanistan
2 - Propaganda activity of various Islamic and jihadist groups (ISIS*, Al-Qaeda*, Taliban*, Jamaat Ansarullah*, etc.), intensively using the languages of the peoples of the Central Asian region.
3 - Exacerbation of the Palestinian problem due to the war between Hamas and Israel.
4 - Anti-migration sentiments and administrative excesses in Russia.
5 - Intensification of recruitment and terrorist activity of the Afghan branch of ISIS* outside Afghanistan (Russia, Turkey, EU, etc.).
6 - The activity of Qatar and a number of other Arab countries in the construction of mosques in the Central Asian republics.
Experts are most concerned about the situation in Kyrgyzstan, where the processes of Islamization and religious radicalization are particularly intense.
Observers give second place in the “radicalization rating” to Tajikistan, noting a significant weakening of control over the process by the authorities.
Experts are inclined to share third place between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Here, Islamization and radicalization are also rapidly gaining strength, but are still controlled by the authorities or have other restraining mechanisms related to the peculiarities of the political system or the structure of social relations.
Observers place Turkmenistan in fourth place, not because of the stability of the situation, but because of the closed nature of this country and the lack of reliable information on the problem. Insiders report that the same negative manifestations of religiosity are occurring in Turkmenistan as in other countries of the Central Asian region.
In the medium term, experts believe, the threat of the “Islamic revolution” may worsen in the region.
*Organizations are prohibited by the UN.
