The Taliban authorities’ shutdown of the internet in most provinces of Afghanistan ultimately creates the conditions for a national uprising and the collapse of the emirate.
By Khaledin Ziaei, Head of the Educational Discourse of the Nation Think Tank – especially for “Sangar”
Over the past two decades, the internet has become a key foundation for social communications, information exchange, education, the digital economy, and even political resistance. The experience of Nepal’s state collapse, in which informed and active youth played a crucial role in the virtual space, demonstrated that new technologies can serve as a foundation for profound political change. Based on this, the leaders of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate, fearing similar examples in the region, have attempted to restrict or completely shut down the internet in key Afghan provinces.
This measure is important not only for controlling power and social monitoring but also carries deep political, social, economic, and security consequences, which could lay the groundwork for uprisings against the Taliban regime and its downfall.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The analysis is conducted in light of theories of digital authoritarianism and concepts of soft and hard power in the field of information technologies. This approach shows that the internet is not merely a communication tool but a field for the struggle for power, political legitimacy, and active civic engagement.
ASPECTS AND CONSEQUENCES
Political Aspect
Legitimacy Monitoring: The Taliban attempts to limit or weaken internet access to prevent the spread of protests and opposition activities both domestically and abroad. This measure further undermines the already fragile legitimacy of the Islamic Emirate, both nationally and internationally.
Regional Comparison: Experiences in Nepal and other countries show that depriving access to the internet does not stop protests; on the contrary, it intensifies public dissatisfaction.
Social Aspect
Restriction of Youth: Afghan youth, especially in key cities like Kabul, Herat, and Mazar-i-Sharif, heavily rely on the internet for education, work, and social communication. Internet shutdowns lead to isolation and deep frustration for this generation.
Cultural and Educational Isolation: In a country where women and girls face widespread restrictions, the internet is their only channel for access to knowledge and culture. Depriving them of it exacerbates gender and social inequalities.
Security Aspect
Preventing Surveillance: The Taliban aim to weaken the internet and block GPS activation to protect themselves from drone attacks, such as the assassination attempt on Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Increasing Cyber-Insecurity: Internet restrictions may prompt opposition forces to adopt alternative technologies (e.g., satellite networks, Starlink, or encryption tools), leading to new forms of confrontation between the Taliban and their opponents.
Economic Aspect
Paralysis of the Digital Economy: In recent years, online commerce, digital platforms, and freelance work have become primary sources of income for many Afghans. Internet shutdowns can significantly impact personal and household incomes.
Economic Isolation: Cutting off the internet reduces trust from foreign investors, slows technological projects, and encourages emigration or the departure of skilled workers.
Geopolitical Aspect
Rising International Pressure: The international community, especially human rights and freedom of speech organizations, views internet shutdowns as violations of citizens’ fundamental rights. This could provide grounds for new sanctions against the Taliban.
Regional Power Plays: Geopolitical competitors of the Taliban may offer and provide access to satellite technologies and alternative internet pathways, strengthening their influence in Afghanistan and exerting additional pressure on the Taliban.
CONCLUSION
The Taliban’s shutdown or weakening of the internet in Afghanistan is not only a tool for control and security but also has multifaceted consequences for Afghan society. This measure undermines the Taliban’s legitimacy, deepens social discontent, paralyzes the digital economy, and further isolates Afghanistan on the international stage.
Ultimately, while the Taliban seeks to prevent a repeat of experiences like Nepal’s state collapse through this policy, it may, in fact, create the conditions for wider protests and greater instability in the country. This, in turn, lays the groundwork for a national uprising against the exploitative and repressive Emirate regime, leading to its collapse and downfall.
