Who will replace Zamir Kabulov?
Author: Andrey Serenko, Director of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics (Russia)
This issue is currently of great interest both in Kabul and various Afghan political emigration groups.
Since the end of July, various Afghan sources have been sharing their forecasts regarding the candidacy of the replacement of the Russian diplomat Zamir Kabulov as the special representative of the President of Russia for Afghanistan.
We must admit right away that we do not believe in these rumors - there have been so many of them, and Zamir Nabievich is still there, and it seems he will never leave his post...
But Afghan politicians are energetic people, eager to wait for changes in the Russian strategy regarding Afghanistan. And they directly link these changes with the departure - sooner or later - of Zamir Kabulov from the post of special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan.
Below we are only retelling what we heard from several Afghan politicians who hint that they have signals on this matter from some Russian sources.
So, according to these rumors, the Russian President's Special Representative for Afghanistan may be replaced as early as the fall of 2024.
According to the same sources, there are currently "two and a half" candidates for Kabulov's seat.
Candidate №1: Albert Khorev (Russian Ambassador to Pakistan). He is described as follows: "a young and promising Afghanist, working effectively on the Pakistani track."
Candidate №2: Dmitry Kabaev. He is described as follows: "an experienced Afghanist, an informal leader among UNAMA foreign specialists, previously worked as the Russian Consul General in Mazar-i-Sharif."
Afghan sources emphasize that "both of them (Khorev and Kabaev) are Kabulov cadres," that is, allegedly selected by Kabulov himself as his successors.
Afghan sources call Dmitry Zhirnov, the current Russian ambassador to Kabul, a “half candidate”. He is described as a person with “very good connections in the Russian presidential administration.” Afghan observers assess Zhirnov’s chances of taking Kabulov’s current post as “quite serious if he wants it.”
In connection with this, they tell the following story: “When they replaced the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan, Mantytsky, Kabulov (allegedly) wanted to put Kabaev in his place. He went through all the necessary approvals and even the order was already waiting to be signed. But at the last moment, they appointed another one – Zhirnov. And all because he has close connections on the Old Square.”
Therefore, even now, Afghan stakeholders do not rule out that Zhirnov may turn out to be a joker in the deck of candidates, capable of breaking the intrigue of the outgoing special representative.
According to one Afghan observer, "After Kabulov's departure, his successors will not stay long": "It will be difficult to clear the stagnant swamp and give it a dynamic impulse. Moreover, often to the detriment of the special representative's reputation."
Let's leave these comments without comments.
Well, let's see if these expectations and forecasts come true...
