The explosion of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines is an energy disaster for Europe, but who benefits from it?
Author: Rybar
On the night of September 26, in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark northeast of the island of Bornholm, leaks were recorded on one of the lines of the Nord Stream 2 highway and on both lines of Nord Stream 1. The Swedish Coast Guard has discovered another fourth gas leak from the damaged Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper reported on Thursday, September 29.
Already on September 27, information appeared that the simultaneous failure of 3 out of 4 threads of gas pipelines eliminates the possibility of wear or accidental damage. And, therefore, there remains the option of undermining, already confirmed by the Swedish National Seismic Network. According to the Swedes, the power of the explosion was 100 kg of TNT.
In this area, gas pipelines run at a depth of about 60 m, which means that the explosion could be carried out both by combat swimmers and with the help of a drone.
Over the past month, there has been increased activity of the US military in the region, and there have also been reports of British naval exercises in the Bornholm depression.
The main beneficiaries of the disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe are the US and the UK for the following reasons:
▪️The Ukrainian GTS is becoming the main route for gas transit from Russia to Europe.
▪️The German government, even with a strong desire, will not be able to launch Nord Stream 2. And as we know, Germany was in no hurry to bankrupt the pipeline operator Nord Stream-2, despite the announcement of the closure of the project, thus maintaining room for maneuver and insurance in case of a hard winter. This insurance is no longer available. Repairs may take several years.
It is beneficial for Great Britain and the United States to weaken Germany not only by cutting it off from Russian supplies but also by provoking economic conflicts within the EU.
In particular, on September 27, the opening of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline took place in northwestern Poland. Its capacity is only 10 billion cubic meters, which is 10 times less than the volume supplied by SP-1 and SP-2.
However, gas supplies from Norway will allow Poland to control the volume of energy resources sent to the Baltic countries and Germany, which will inevitably lead to increased tensions with Germany.
▪️ The United States is interested in Europe's growing dependence on LNG supplies, and the UK received a few percent of Russian gas from total consumption, and therefore their reduction will not significantly affect the country's energy balance: in June, Britain reduced the volume of Russian gas imports by ¾ of the volumes supplied in 2021 – 4% of total gas imports.
The UK is also experiencing an energy crisis. Electricity prices will increase by 80% from October 1.
Importing electricity from Norway via submarine cable is difficult due to drying up rivers and reduced electricity generation from hydroelectric power plants. Energy supplies from thermal and nuclear power plants in France have also declined due to the energy crisis in France itself.
In July, it was reported that the UK overpaid 5,000% on Belgian electricity imports because there was a heat wave and windless weather, which meant that the wind turbines were not working.
Therefore, the UK will already begin to develop its own gas fields in the North Sea and is actively exploring the possibility of extracting shale gas.
The production of its own gas will allow Britain to compete with other suppliers in the EU market in the future.
But until then, power cables are still of great importance for the energy-scarce UK, which means that accidental damage to one (or maybe several) of them will at least cause a lot of trouble for the office of Prime Minister Truss, and at most, correct the balance of power in the European energy market, where Germany is now in a rather vulnerable position.
