No one managed to effectively manage this country - neither the communists, nor the monarchists, nor the Western Republicans, nor now the Taliban.
Author: Andrey Serenko, Head of the Analytical Center of the Russian Society of Political Scientists
Socio-political upheavals are beginning to intensify in Afghanistan. The Taliban regime is tottering and about to collapse. Political scientist and author of the telegram channel Andrey Serenko revealed 4 scenarios for the development of events in Afghanistan to “Look at the East”:
Preservation of the Taliban regime
The Taliban regime will be supported, strengthened, and helped to keep the American partners. It's already happening. For 1.5 years, according to experts, the United States spent $5 billion on Afghanistan. Preserving the Taliban regime in a slightly modified form will allow the Americans to influence the situation in the country and the region, spending less money than in the past 20 years. A new deal between the US and the Taliban is likely in the spring of 2023 when an inclusive government can be created in Kabul with the participation of representatives of the Afghan political emigration but on the platform of the Kandahar faction of the Taliban (Mullah Baradar, Mullah Yakub). In this case, the Russian Federation will begin to distance itself from the Taliban and, possibly, look for new allies among Afghan politicians. It is possible that among the ardent opponents of the Taliban, for example, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (FNSA) Ahmad Massoud.
Civil War
The Taliban will not hold power, there will be a full-scale civil war between them, the Resistance Front, the Pashtun resistance units that are starting to form in Kandahar, and the [banned terrorist] IS fighters who are raising their heads in Afghanistan. The big question is: whom will the Russian Federation support and will it interfere in Afghan affairs? It will probably have to intervene if only to stop the resurgence of ISIS. By the way, the only thing that unites the Russian Federation and the United States is that both of them do not accept ISIS and are ready to use force for this.
The collapse of the country
It will mean the creation of at least 2 separate proto-states: in the north - Khorasan, a federation of non-Pashtun ethnic communities, in the south - Pashtunistan, where the Taliban's power can be partially preserved. It is possible that an Afghan branch of the Islamic State will try to create its own "caliphate" on the basis of one or two provinces.
The weakening of the centralized Afghan state is inevitable. Perhaps no one has been able to manage this country effectively - neither the communists, nor the monarchists, nor the Western Republicans, nor now the Taliban. This is a heterogeneous state in terms of natural relief, demographic, ethnic, religious, and political dimensions.
The only thing that reduces the likelihood of such a disintegration scenario is that no external force is interested in dismantling Afghanistan.
Chaos and war of all against all
The mass impoverishment of the population, hunger, the collapse of state institutions, and the inability of neighboring states, the Russian Federation, and the West to keep the country from sliding into the abyss can turn Afghanistan into a black hole of Eurasia, a new "wild field" where there will be no peace, no peace, no development. In this case, the region will face severe shocks in the form of hundreds of thousands of refugees, terrorist attacks, and the emergence of new jihadist projects that can export hell from Afghanistan to the rest of the world.
