Is Russia putting out a fire with gasoline?
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics (Russia)
Putin avoided answering the question about when Russia will remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations.
Speaking at a press conference in Astana today, the Russian President said that the Taliban "controls power" in Afghanistan. Therefore, Russia maintains contacts with the Taliban and considers it possible to interact with them “on the anti-terrorism track” (in the sense of cooperation in the fight against ISIS).
At the same time, Putin did not give any real examples of such cooperation, appealing only to a logical conclusion: the Taliban are now ruling Afghanistan, and any government strives for stability in the country it rules, and therefore - on this basis - the Taliban are considered by Moscow as possible partners for dialogue.
Logical chains, of course, are a good thing, but practical policies do not always correspond to them. Actually, Putin tried to understand the same thing, avoiding a direct answer to the question of when Russia would remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations. They say that the war and the plan will show.
It seems that this kind of statement that Putin made today in Astana is the maximum that the Taliban can expect from Russia. Moscow is clearly in no hurry to either exclude the Taliban from the list of prohibited terrorist organizations, much less recognize the Taliban regime.
Complimentary statements by Putin, and before that by representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, towards the Taliban are a political advance; Moscow is not ready for anything more now.
Well, thus, Putin, in fact, sent a signal to the anti-Taliban Resistance in Afghanistan: if it can destroy the Taliban’s monopoly on “control of power” in Afghanistan, then the political strategy of the Russian Federation will change both in relation to the Taliban and in relation to the Afghan Resistance.
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Putin on the Taliban:
“The Taliban are certainly our allies in the fight against terrorism.”
But at the same time, Moscow is in no hurry to exclude the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations.
One terrorist organization turns out to be a “natural” ally of Moscow in the fight against another terrorist organization.
Well, in general, of course, it’s no more logical than putting out a fire with gasoline.
Now live with it.
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So, the Taliban has been declared an ally of Russia in the fight against terrorism and, above all, against ISIS.
And now - just the facts.
Before the Taliban came to power, while the US, NATO and the Republican government were in Afghanistan, the Afghan branch of ISIS did not attack a single Russian object, either in Afghanistan or beyond.
After the Taliban came to power, the Afghan affiliate of ISIS attacked several Russian targets in both Afghanistan and Russia.
1 - In September 2022, a suicide bomber from the Afghan affiliate of ISIS blew himself up at the entrance to the Russian embassy in Kabul guarded by the Taliban. As a result, two Russian embassy employees and several Afghans were killed. The Taliban either could not or did not want to prevent the terrorist attack.
2 - In March 2024, a group of militants - supporters of the Afghan branch of ISIS - attacked visitors to Crocus City Hall in the Moscow region. Dozens of Russian citizens were killed. According to the director of the FSB, General Bortnikov, traces of the terrorist attack lead to an ISIS branch located in the border zone between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban either could not prevent this terrorist attack or did not want to. Three months later, none of the leaders of the Afghan branch of ISIS have been punished for the crime committed against Russian citizens in the Moscow region.
3 - During the entire time they were in power (three years), the Taliban did not hand over to Russia a single terrorist from the Afghan branch of ISIS. Although there are also enough militants with Russian passports there.
“The Taliban control power in Afghanistan and are sending signals to Russia that they are ready to assist the anti-terrorist track,” says the Russian president.
I wonder who delivers these signals to him. It would be interesting to hear what they look like.
Because the real signals the Taliban are giving are completely different - both in September 2022 and in March 2024. Or are these signals not enough? Well then, don’t be surprised when more of the same signal appears.
*Taliban and ISIS are terrorist organizations banned in the Russian Federation.
