The Russian military's view of the Taliban is full of suspicion, and their interactions are cold and warning!
Author: Ahmad Shoaib Naimi, analyst, especially for Sangar
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced many ups and downs. This country ranks first in terms of land area and its population reaches almost 149 million people. Muslims also have a significant number in this huge country.
The beginning of Russia's relations with Khorasan/Afghanistan dates back to the beginning of the Great Game (the seizure of Central Asian countries and the formation of a buffer state between Tsarist Russia and Great Britain). Under the Bolsheviks, the idea of access to the Indian Ocean was raised in the Kremlin, and it was from here that the preconditions were created for the growing interest of this country, as the core of the Soviet Union, in our country, until it led to the military occupation of our country by the Soviet Union.
More than forty years have passed since the military occupation of our country by the Soviets. Many in Russia believe that the military occupation of Afghanistan was the decision of a narrow circle of people. Soon after the expulsion of Soviet troops from our country, a comprehensive collapse occurred, which in Russia is called the 1990s.
This era continued until the 2000s when Vladimir Putin came to power. This period is known as one of the most bitter periods in the modern history of Russia. At a time when our country was occupied by the puppet forces of Pakistan (Taliban), Russia supported the United National Front against the Taliban, despite its internal problems.
Central Asia is Russia's backyard, which is an important reason for the country's interest in Afghanistan. Russia looked at our country through the prism of security. By keeping an eye on Afghanistan, Russia wants to prevent the spread of insecurity, instability, drugs, and other dangerous phenomena into Central Asia, which in the next stage could reach the borders of the Russian mainland.
After the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2000, Russia was one of the countries that supported the new US-led political process in Afghanistan, which was interpreted as Russia's desire to interact with the West in global macropolitics.
This continued until the war in Georgia occurred in 2008 and led to a deterioration in Russia's relations with the West, leading to weakening Russian support for the US-centric political process in Afghanistan.
Following the political changes in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, Russia's relations with the West reached their lowest point until Afghanistan fell back under Taliban control. Although some diplomatic moves and ceremonial trips were made on the surface, there was no meaningful relationship between Russia and our country.
Russia's view of our country after August 2021:
After the Taliban came to power, Russia's view of the country changed. At the diplomatic level, warm relations have been established between Kabul and Moscow, but a different point of view has emerged at the military and intelligence level. The Russian military's view of the Taliban is full of suspicion, and their interactions are cold and warning!
MFA:
As in many other countries in the region, the Russian diplomatic system approached the Taliban issue with extreme optimism: the Russian embassy in Kabul continued to work, and diplomatic visits continued. Of course, we cannot ignore the role of Putin’s special representative Zamir Kabulov. 70-year-old Zamir Nabievich Kabulov can be called the architect of Russia's relations with the Taliban. He, who speaks Persian well, was able to use his influence to bring many Central Asian countries onto the path of cooperation with the Taliban.
Some believe that Russian diplomatic efforts to maintain cordial relations with the Taliban are rooted in the inevitability of Russia, which has put the country in a difficult situation since the start of the war in Ukraine. A situation in which the fear of opening another war front on the southeastern border plays a decisive role.
Russia has gone so far in maintaining the status quo in its relations with the Taliban that even despite open provocations, such as the explosion in front of the Russian embassy in Kabul and the murder of Russian diplomats, events in Kazakhstan, several rocket attacks on Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, left without answer.
Observers believe that the tone of the Russian Foreign Ministry has changed recently and it is likely that after the presidential elections, there will be changes in the Russian diplomatic system, the purpose of which will be to bring the views of the Foreign Ministry in line with the Ministry of Defense and the Security Council.
Security forces:
Among the security forces, Nikolai Patrushev, an adviser to Russia's National Security Council, is considered the second most powerful person after Putin and is likely to become Putin's successor, and plays a decisive role. They say that Putin personally agrees with the NSS adviser on the Taliban.
Nikolai Patrushev has a positive view of Tajikistan, its President Emamali Rahman (an ardent supporter of the main force of the anti-Taliban front, the National Resistance Front), and Iran, and also travels to these countries from time to time.
Experts in Russia believe that the military under the leadership of Patrushev will most likely repeat the Syrian scenario with Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan against terrorists after the Ukrainian issue is resolved.
