The Taliban are generally no allies for the Russian Federation.
Author: Andrey Serenko
Source: telegram channel "Andrey Serenko"
New success of American diplomacy in the Afghan direction. And a new defeat for Russian diplomacy.
US Special Representative Tom West met in Turkey with the leaders of the united Afghan opposition - members of the "Supreme Council of Resistance to Save Afghanistan" (SCR). So far, there is no reliable information about the results of the meetings, but the very fact of this public contact is sensational.
Of course, the Americans have previously communicated with veterans of Afghan politics in exile. But those were secret, informal meetings. Now, Tom West's conversations mark the beginning of a new American game in Afghanistan.
Obviously, this will be a full-fledged and almost monopoly two-handed game - with the Taliban government and the united anti-Taliban opposition represented by the SCR. Thus, the Americans once again secured the initiative in the Afghan "great game", forcing everyone else (including Russia and China) to trail behind Washington's intrigues. And not unsuccessful intrigues.
The United States is beginning to form a new balance of political forces in the Afghan political process, closing priority contacts with all its main participants. The ideal role of an "honest broker" in the Afghan game is again intercepted by Washington.
Russia, and China, will now have to respond to a new American project in Afghanistan. That is, to catch up with Washington, and catching up, as you know, is always late.
Moscow's rather short-sighted non-alternative stake on cooperation with the Taliban junta turned out to be quite predictable. Despite all the flexibility of Mr. Kabulov and his ballet diplomatic group, it was not possible to make the Taliban at least relatively reliable allies of the Kremlin. Moreover, the Taliban are generally no allies for the Russian Federation.
During the time of this Nesselrode* from Smolenskaya Square ineptly were missed the unique opportunities for cooperation with serious groups of the anti-Taliban opposition, defiantly ignoring the same National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRFA) of Ahmad Massoud (they say, "this is a virtual phenomenon"), the shuttle diplomacy of Shakir Kargar and Hanif Atmar, the potential of is now the former Ambassador of Afghanistan in Moscow, Syed Tayib Javad, etc.
As a result, today Russia does not have any serious and promising mechanisms for its successful project in Afghanistan. It is impossible to consider Hamid Karzai (who is under house arrest in Kabul) following Ashraf Ghani as such a resource of the Kremlin? Yes, he is a great friend and business partner of Zamir Kabulov, but this is where his real pro-Russian virtues end. In any case, the Russian Foreign Ministry's stake on Karzai turned out to be just as unsuccessful as on the Taliban.
On the contrary, Washington has gained almost all the major political tools to regain its status as the main operator of the Afghan game. The legitimization of the SCR (through meetings of its leaders with West in Turkey) immediately raises the political stakes of this opposition group (which, by the way, includes Ahmad Masud, who was not at the meeting with the American special envoy). The Taliban will undoubtedly wince, to whom an open signal has been sent that their "honeymoon" in Kabul is over. And now the Taliban leaders will even more actively seek the favor of Washington, which is preparing "furious mullahs" for a new deal - of course, in the interests of the Afghan people and, quite a bit, the United States.
...And Russian diplomats will be able to watch the new stage of the big game in Afghanistan as spectators. Because the main roles in this "performance" were taken apart by more effective actors.
*Count Karl Vasilyevich Nesselrode or Karl Robert von Nesselrode-Ereshoven was a Russian statesman of German origin, the penultimate chancellor of the Russian Empire. He served as Minister of Foreign Affairs longer (August 21, 1816 - April 15, 1856) than anyone else in the history of both Russia and the USSR.
