What is Mullah Haibatullah doing to contain Sirajuddin Haqqani?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
The imaginary Haibatullah, the leader of the Taliban, recently wanted to resolve differences between the Taliban group and said that he was ready to give up his position for the sake of the group's survival. Apart from the nature of the issue, this is a turning point in the history of this group as its leader is willing to give up his position without any external factor such as outside pressure and open the way for a new evolution in its history.
The author summarizes the reasons for this problem in several points:
- Haibatullah does this as part of efforts to overcome internal differences between Taliban factions and reduce the external pressure;
- Show that he is not fighting for office, but for religion and Sharia and the interests of the Taliban group;
- Be able to manage internal differences and create a platform for the new change that will occur shortly in Afghanistan, especially after the third meeting in Doha;
- Haibatullah, because these differences among the Taliban are growing every day, has realized his precarious position and wants to use special tactics to limit the field for any unrest to occur;
- Since there is a high level of satisfaction among the Taliban with the arbitrariness of Haibatullah, there is a possibility of intra-group conflict with various branches of the Taliban, such as the Haqqani network, Mullah Yaqub group, Qatar group, Helmand network, Kandahar group, and the new pole, created under the leadership of Abdulhaq Wasiq, the head of intelligence of the Taliban. Haibatullah, understanding the complex situation and the extent of the contradictions between the various factions of the Taliban, which mainly involve issues of sharing power and wealth, wants to neutralize the intensity of the conflicts by creating space.
However, the main differences between the Taliban include other factors. Administrative problems, regional, political, intellectual, and ideological differences, and differences caused by the major powers involved in the Afghanistan issue also create a rift among the Taliban. They are daily breaking the back of this group.
Ultimately, if the imaginary Haibatullah leaves or is physically eliminated, Sirajuddin Haqqani will become the most likely candidate to take over the Taliban leadership. Since he also has leadership power, he has a regular military network and tries to lay the groundwork in advance by creating broad social connections between people.
This network currently includes the Afghan Ministry of Interior, various provincial governors, and two suicide squads such as 313 Badri and Mansouri squads, which are both ready to explode the situation. However, if this happens and Haqqani becomes a major force among the Taliban, the roots of disagreement among the Taliban will remain intact and at least continue.
