Kabul is simultaneously trying to find allies to continue military operations and mediators to achieve peace with Islamabad.
By Andrei Serenko, staff correspondent of Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Russia)
The photo shows the aftermath of Pakistani strikes on Kabul. Photo: Vantor/Handout via REUTERS
The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is entering a period of serious crisis. The cause is the war with neighboring Pakistan, which began in February 2026 and continues to this day. The pause taken by the sides during the Eid al-Fitr (Eid) holiday period only underscores the severity of the military threat facing the Afghan Taliban, who are simultaneously trying to find both allies in their confrontation with Islamabad and mediators for negotiations with it.
In northern Afghanistan, populated by Tajiks, Uzbeks, and other non-Pashtun groups, unprecedented events have been taking place since March of this year. Pashtun commanders and administrative officials of the Taliban regime have been addressing residents in Persian, urging them to stand up in defense of a “common homeland” against the Pakistani threat. “We are all one people, we share one homeland, and we must defend it against Pakistan’s aggression,” Taliban speakers are quoted as saying by sources in Panjshir, Baghlan, Takhar, Badakhshan, Kapisa, and other Afghan provinces where non-Pashtun ethnic groups make up the majority.
“Hearing this is unbelievable,” local sources comment. “Just a few months ago, Pashtun Taliban here behaved arrogantly, like colonizers. They addressed locals in Pashto, ignoring their native language. And the tone of their messaging was purely threatening: do not dare oppose the Islamic Emirate that governs you and this land; unconditional obedience to the orders of the Taliban emir; death penalty for disobedience, and so on. And suddenly, such changes. Now it turns out we are one whole, one people, and we have one homeland that we must defend.”
These striking changes in the behavior of the Afghan Taliban occurred two weeks after the outbreak of war with Pakistan’s army. Contrary to Taliban propaganda, the reality is that things are not going well for the regime of the “furious mullahs.” Taliban armed formations are suffering heavy losses—primarily as a result of Pakistani airstrikes, missile attacks, and drone strikes on key elements of Taliban military infrastructure.
In particular, according to Afghan sources, the headquarters of the Taliban’s 201st Army Corps was completely destroyed by Pakistani airstrikes and effectively put out of action. The 203rd Corps sustained partial damage, significantly reducing its ability to command troops. In border areas, especially within the responsibility zones of the 201st and 203rd Corps, the Pakistani army has seized several border posts located on Afghan territory. The total number of such posts reaches 13, and all of them are now under Pakistani control. “At the same time, the Taliban avoids acknowledging these facts, as they undermine its claims of control over Afghan territory,” sources note.
Afghan military experts highlight the particular importance of the strategic point of Ashkin in the eastern Afghan province of Paktika. Previously, a large U.S. military base was located there, and the terrain itself holds a dominant position, providing wide visibility and the ability to control surrounding territory, including the Angur Ada area (Pakistan). This point is now under the control of Pakistani forces.
In addition, after two weeks of fighting, certain Taliban positions in the provinces of Paktia and Nangarhar have also been taken by the Pakistani army. According to Afghan military analysts, despite Taliban attempts to portray Pakistan’s actions as purely aerial operations, the facts indicate a noticeable ground advance as well.
This advance has a clear objective: Islamabad is openly seeking not only to destroy the military infrastructure of the Afghan Taliban regime, but also to establish a security buffer zone along the border “Durand Line” up to 30 km deep inside Afghan territory. According to Afghan analysts, the implementation of this plan could significantly alter the military-geographical balance in border areas.
As part of this strategy, Pakistani forces carried out strikes on the eastern section of the Kabul airport area (Camp Phoenix) as well as in the Dar-ul-Aman district. As a result, around 300 units of military equipment were destroyed. In addition, a central warehouse in Bagram, where military equipment was stored, was hit. The primary objective of these actions by Islamabad is to deprive the Taliban of armored vehicles, heavy weaponry, and key military infrastructure.
And the Pakistani side is largely succeeding in this effort. According to Afghan military experts, the Taliban’s inability to hold border positions is largely due to shortages of ammunition, weapons, and defensive equipment. Informed Afghan sources report that the Taliban’s emir, Mawlawi Haibatullah, has allocated about 1.4 billion afghanis (approximately $30 million) for the purchase of weapons and ammunition. At the same time, the question remains: who, under current conditions, is willing to supply arms to the Taliban?
The prospect of a military defeat of the Taliban, should the conflict with Pakistan continue, is becoming increasingly likely. In this context, the Taliban are simultaneously trying to find allies to continue the war and mediators to achieve peace with Islamabad. Over the past 5–7 days, Taliban fighters and commanders have been visiting the homes of families of former servicemen of Afghanistan’s republican government, inviting them to return from Iran and other countries to “jointly defend the common homeland” against Pakistan. Having learned from bitter experience, former security personnel are in no hurry to respond to these calls. Efforts to find mediators are also making little progress: Islamabad senses its advantage on the battlefield and is currently focused on achieving military success.
Against this backdrop, key figures of the Taliban regime have virtually disappeared from public view in Afghanistan: leaders of major Taliban groups have gone semi-underground, while fighters and commanders avoid staying overnight at their bases for fear of missile and drone strikes by Islamabad. In effect, the regime of the “hardline mullahs” is beginning to lose its previous control over major cities and some provinces. Crisis dynamics in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan are likely to intensify under the impact of Pakistani strikes and in the absence of internal support reserves.
