What is the predicament of complex spy games in Afghanistan?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher.
It is evident that the nature of crises in the geography of Afghanistan, despite its transitory nature, has a strategic nature. In other words, what is happening in Afghanistan is a wave, but its long-term consequences dominate the atmosphere of this country. For this reason, we can say that the current state of the country is in a state of suspense, until the great powers involved in the Afghanistan issue reach an understanding on other common and acute global issues, later by bypassing the rules of the game, in they will decide the case of Afghanistan and its fate. This, in fact, has the message of war and the continuation of the current stalemate.
In this game, there is a general win-win rule for powerful players and several local players, including the Taliban, who keep the main cycle of this game circulating. The current game in the axis of Afghanistan is very complicated with multi-faceted characteristics and various dimensions, which is being promoted by a hybrid war. The hardware elements of war, the role of intelligence, the media, economic, psychological factors, etc., are all going on in this asymmetric war against the people of Afghanistan by the great powers and their proxies such as the Taliban.
The big powers have a number of local proxies such as the Taliban in the field to finalize the decision on the continuation of the game in the geography of Afghanistan. The Taliban have assumed the responsibility of steering the power for the time being. You are responsible for power with the harshest way of governing and creating a suffocating atmosphere, so that no movement against the principle of the game's agenda is made. In this situation, a name called Haibatullah is the manager of the affairs to move the situation according to the wishes of the powerful players in the region. This awe-inspiring name promotes a strategy that has already been set for him. The control and inspection strategy in the society, the result of which is to maintain the status quo according to the plans. The Hibatullah Nam strategy has the following characteristics:
First- Cleansing the Taliban cabinet of the opponents of Hibetullah, which includes the Haqqanis, the Taliban of Kandahar, Helmand, and the Qatari group?
Second- Alliance with regional countries instead of interaction with the West. This feature was designed in consultation with Pakistan so that the Taliban would remain in absolute control of this country;
Third- alliance with Pakistan and its intelligence and trying to obey unconditionally in exchange for implementing and advancing agendas like TTP, which is outside the control of Pakistan and its security system;
Fourth- The transfer of power from Kabul to Kandahar for simple decision-making and to have key ministries in order to prevent any kind of coup.
In the meantime, the unprecedented gathering of Western and Eastern information in Kabul squares shows the complexity of this game. The intelligence of each pole tries to design its own program and the Taliban warmly welcomes each group. In a strange game between the Taliban and regional and extra-regional powers, a secret and undetectable plan is going on. The gathering of foreign terrorist groups in the regions of Afghanistan and especially the transfer of Sipah-e- Sahaba and Lashkar Jangawi as the most extreme terrorist groups that are transferred to the North under the cover of TTP is the alarm of a long-term security crisis for a breathtaking battle.
On the other hand, the strange alliance of the Balooch with the TTP and the creation of a security belt to counter the threats from Pakistan give the possibility of India playing a role. Some TTP circles like Nooruli Mehsud have a regular relationship with the Indian Intelligence Organization (RAO) and systematically receive money, equipment, and advice and consultancy assistance from them. In addition, the alliance formed between the TTP and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement facilitates the grounds for ISIS to gain power in northern Afghanistan. In the latest case, the Taliban have decided to prevent the formation of any kind of coalition between these groups. For this purpose, the Pakistani Taliban are pulling out of their traditional bases and moving them to the north. Sangar website has published an article that in the recent meetings between the British and the Americans with the Taliban, pressure was put on the Taliban to sideline the issue of the north. In addition, the statements of the Iranian Foreign Minister, who said that ISIS leaders and experts have been transferred to Afghanistan from Libya, Iraq and Syria, show that the game in Afghanistan is serious.
In addition to the military and intelligence characteristics of the conflict between the powers in Afghanistan, there is also a diplomatic appearance approach. A process that we know as the region's interaction with the Taliban. But this interactive process is carried out by the power players in two directions: tactical interaction on the part of neighboring countries and strategic interaction on the part of the great extra-regional powers, which have different nature in terms of goals and strategy. What is clear is that there is a race over wounded Afghanistan by the Taliban and other terrorist groups through the means of pressure, bribery and rewards.
Basically, this game continues by creating a meaningful tactical balance. No one recognizes the Taliban and no one cuts ties with them. In this stalemate, they have deliberately prepared the ground for the Taliban to gain bargaining power and be recognized as a powerful element. They have turned the discourse, separated from the reality, that "the Taliban have no alternative" into a cliché. They have ignored the power of the people of Afghanistan and they consider the twenty years of our people's achievements for democracy and the provision of civil and contemporary values as nothing. In the meantime, under the slogan "Taliban has no alternative", the Taliban find more and more power for their survival and knock on every door to receive help and support.
The current battle in Afghanistan is tied to the policy of patience and tolerance. Afghanistan's issues are directly related to major international issues, and until there is a change in major international deadlocks, the existing deadlock in Afghanistan will not be broken. There is a long distance from tactical interaction to strategic interaction. Although it is full of disasters for the people and the geography of Afghanistan, it is a reality and we must accept it.
At the level of regional and global strategy, the practical coalition of terrorist groups and the creation of united structures among them, such as the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, TTP and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, have raised a new alarm for the security of the region. Under the umbrella of ISIS, there is a possibility of forming a coalition between other terrorist groups. The Taliban have been kept suspended between two decision-making modes so as not to let this tactical balance be disturbed. A balance that can be upset at any moment and change the equation fundamentally.
The political currents against the Taliban have also been suspended. Efforts are being made to keep these capacities in reserve in order to create a defense wall of Shanghai in the face of the demands of the polar opposites of this organization. The difference of opinion among the regional powers in the field of pursuing policies against the Taliban also shows a state of confusion. It is obvious that there is common ground between these powers in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in Afghanistan, this common ground has given way to a strategic calculation by resorting to a tactical and cross-sectional interaction. The Taliban also used the opportunity to They can kill people, commit violence, ethnic cleansing, and collect wealth and auction the assets of the Afghan people, which are the mines of Afghanistan. The increasing growth of drug cultivation and trafficking by the Taliban is taking place in an organized manner. The smuggling of arms and equipment of the Afghan army, extortion and the imposition of mafia principles on the poor people of Afghanistan are still going on. With this situation, in the current situation, we have to wait for a change in the politics of the great powers regarding Afghanistan.
In the current situation, the people of Afghanistan have no decision-making power, nor is it considered an important factor in bringing about a change in the situation. What can be pointed out about the current situation and the existing deadlock is the confusion and the complex game of information that has made the situation complicated.
