Whether Prigozhin is a true patriot or a traitor, he remains a threat in any case, as he is stubborn and unpredictable.
Author: Nematullo Mirsaidov, journalist (Tajikistan)
Now, after the de-escalation of the situation in Russia, anyone can say anything, even the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin, that the real reason for his retreat is the unwillingness to "shed Russian blood."
Yesterday, the tension in Russia and abroad went through the roof. No one could predict how the "march of justice" of the Wagnerites would end. The West, with great excitement and hope, expected that finally what it wanted had come to pass. And unexpectedly. The rebellion is not among the population that they planned but among the military.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, counting on the fact that confusion and vacillation could begin in the ranks of the defenders of the occupied (for other, annexed) territories, sharply intensified, but the Russian troops stood as before as if they knew nothing about what was happening in the rear. Maybe, indeed, many might not know. Oppositionists, enemies of Russia, and Russophobes rejoiced at the likelihood of a possible armed showdown. But no one expected a quick denouement. Maybe anybody did not imagine that the friendship of two personalities could save Russia from unprecedented bloodshed.
If there had been a massacre near Moscow, it would have been unknown how events would have unfolded at the front or somewhere on the border of the Kharkiv and Kursk regions. But it passed. Thanks to the initiative of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, who was able to convince Yevgeny Prigozhin of the tragic consequences of the collision of the Wagner PMC with units ready to meet the participants of the military march.
Were there other reasons for Prigozhin's retreat?
I think yes. First. Perhaps Yevgeny Prigozhin did not expect Putin to regard his action as a betrayal, but to make diplomatic efforts to solve the problem, even to the point of fulfilling his demands.
Second. It is possible that his decision to stop the "march of justice" was influenced by the fact that most of the "Wagnerites" nevertheless realized the erroneous actions of their commander and decided not to go further and voluntarily return to their places of permanent deployment. The realization that the PMC would be defeated sooner or later made him look for a way to compromise.
Third. Definitely, Prigozhin is not a traitor, he is a real patriot, but he is also a stubborn, ambitious, touchy warrior who overestimated his capabilities. He may have regained insight after a conversation with a highly experienced and subtle politician who managed to put everything on the shelves and brought to him the fact that his name would be forever tarnished if there was bloodshed. He can turn from a hero into a traitor like Vlasov.
Fourth. Not the last role was played, however, by his sense of patriotism, which took precedence over ambitions.
We do not currently have information on where Prigozhin is, whether he crossed the Russian-Belarusian border, and with whom. It is not difficult to assume that with some of the Wagner PMC fighters since the personnel of its military formation and military equipment are part of the guarantee of its security. This means that his fighters can eventually join the ranks of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
The question arises, under what conditions did Lukashenka and Prigozhin agree on whether there will be reshuffles in the Russian Defense Ministry since it was Shoigu and Gerasimov who brought the situation to a possible catastrophe? What will happen to Prigozhin himself?
I think a rearrangement of the main figures suggests itself. As long as Prigozhin has military power, it doesn't matter where he is - in Russia or Belarus, he is a danger. If Lukashenka secured Putin's promise to fulfill certain conditions of Prigozhin, then changes will follow in the near future. If Prigozhin agreed to Lukashenka’s conditions to guarantee his safety and only because he was able to convince a friend that in any case he could be destroyed in a collision, even at the cost of a lot of blood, then we should wait for an answer to another question: Will Putin forgive such impudence to Prigozhin, will not continue to consider him a traitor?
Whether Prigozhin is a true patriot or a traitor, he remains a threat in any case, as he is stubborn and unpredictable. In addition, narrow-minded, if ambition was above reason. Moreover, the destruction of an aircraft, and several helicopters, and the death of 15 people is a consequence of the "justice march" he has undertaken, for which he will have to answer.
