Jihadist Islamist groups are just a tool of the powers against rivals.
Author: Rustam Rushangar, analyst, especially for "Sangar"
I have wanted to get a clear picture of the events in Syria for several days now, but this picture has not yet been obtained.
The history of Syria is important for us because the events there are similar to those in Afghanistan, both in the internal and external dimensions.
The despotic secular government with eastern patrons was overthrown, and its place was taken by numerous radical Sunni Islamist groups, politically inexperienced and dependent on Western and Arab powers, just like the fallen communist government in Afghanistan and the rise to power of the mujahideen groups, which led to a civil war.
A scenario of a civil war. A scenario of the disintegration of the country. It is probably not a practical scenario for the ruling factions to create a weak and unstable government that will be heavily dependent on and vulnerable to the East-West conflict for many years.
From media reports about Jolani, one can see that he is trying to say goodbye to his terrorist past and work to unite the various factions. He is trying to present himself as a supporter of democracy and civil liberties, probably trying to attract the attention of the West. However, his inaction and failure to prevent foreign aggression from Turkey, Israel, and the US have dealt a heavy blow to his credibility and portrayed him as a mercenary indifferent to defending Syria's territorial integrity.
While a new jihadist government is being created, the interested countries are trying to use the opportunity to realize their goals and weaken Syria in terms of its military potential to the point that it will not be able to pose a threat to its neighbors for the next half century, if not divided.
The published reports of Assad's crimes are also shocking. There are talks about finding mass graves of up to hundreds of thousands of people. This volume of crimes of the overthrown government undoubtedly gives the Syrian people a feeling that they are freed from the hands of a terrible monster and do not think about the future.
However, I think that three unfavorable scenarios threaten the backward eastern countries. Either internal tyranny, deep external dependence at the level of mercenaries, or permanent war and chaos. When tyranny falls, chaos takes its place. The most likely outcome is that a foreign power must suppress the chaos and the country becomes its colony.
And the fact that jihadist Islamist groups want to become national and popular, they are not allowed to do so. With the help of foreigners, they overthrew the ruling regime only as a tool. Foreigners do not help by the will of God and with the victory of the groups under their control, they will put their geopolitical plans before the "conquerors" and demand their implementation. If they implement them, they will become foreign mercenaries and will have no independence, if not, they will be killed, and other mercenary groups will be created against them.
For example, Britain, the US, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan created the Taliban against the Mujahideen. The Mujahideen thought they had defeated the Soviet Union and were not obliged to implement the plans of the US and Britain. The Taliban was created to legitimize mercenary work for foreign powers.
