What is it about Afghanistan that attracts the US?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher, specially for Sangar
In most of his campaign speeches, Trump has repeatedly criticized the US withdrawal from Afghanistan under President Biden, calling it a document of failure for the Democrats. The situation developed in such a way that the US unexpectedly left Afghanistan to implement a strategy of destabilizing Asia and creating a gap in the Asian axis, choosing a rebalancing strategy. The US-backed government collapsed, and the Taliban came to power after 20 years of war and bloodshed and the Doha Agreement.
Now, after the defeat of the Democrats in the US elections, Republican Trump, citing unmotivated and hasty actions, is trying to reopen the Afghan case. What brought Afghanistan to the forefront of US attention after their withdrawal from this country? Why does Trump want to reopen this closed case and include it in the US foreign policy agenda? Will his administration be greedy enough to play a bloody game on the Afghan axis with the precondition of attention to this country? And, finally, what attracts Trump to Afghanistan? I will answer these questions in this article.
FIRST, the reason for Trump's return to the bloody business of his presence in Afghanistan is to restore the destroyed image of the United States as a result of the disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The withdrawal was so fast, hasty, and unexpected that even the US rivals on the Asian axis were surprised and immediately entered into non-motorized tactical relations with the Taliban. It was a complete surprise for the United States that the Asian Axis would so easily enter into tactical interaction with the Taliban. Instead, the Americans, with the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, counted on the violation of the security of the Axis, which was to be realized in Afghanistan under the rule of the Taliban. But the Taliban's access to the ousted republic's wealth, pumping out of more than $20 billion in three years, has so emboldened them that they have learned to take a balanced approach, engaging both the region and the transregion for their own survival. Now the United States is concerned about continuing the security game in Afghanistan, lest the Asian Axis take control of the game and direct it to its own interests. This is unacceptable and irritates the Americans, who consider China to be the main enemy and the number one threat to their national security. In particular, the noticeable Chinese presence and the use of Afghanistan to facilitate the transit route of Chinese goods and their access to Afghanistan's underground resources can be seen as the reason for Trump's interest in returning to Afghanistan;
SECONDLY, as already mentioned, the Taliban's balanced policy in relations with the region and its unexpected closeness to the Asian axis shocked the United States. The Taliban's skillful movement in the direction of its interests is unacceptable to the United States. It was unpredictable in the calculation of the game for the Americans. Now Trump wants to push the game in favor of American interests, looking back at Afghanistan;
THIRD, before dealing with the problems of Ukraine, the Middle East, and Iran, Trump is likely to propose a new strategy for the country's neighbors to better manage the bloody security game under the Taliban in Afghanistan. Undoubtedly, the United States' indescribable attention to the Afghan issue cannot be denied.
FOURTH, Trump regards the Afghan issue as an issue of high status and importance. Trump is not like Napoleon, who, like a military leader, makes decisions on the battlefield and shares the profits and losses. As a political businessman, he thinks about the most important interests of his country on the sidelines of big games. This cannot be said about other American leaders. So, given the vital issues related to US national security, he will certainly make a profitable political deal on Afghanistan;
FIFTH, Trump, understanding the grave and new situation in Afghanistan under Taliban control and the group’s inability to finance its regime, has an effective tool to guide the group in the right direction better to ensure vital American interests. This tool, like financial aid and political support, can make the Taliban powerless in any confrontation with the United States. This winning card for the United States will force Trump to look again at Taliban-controlled Afghanistan;
SIXTH, by seriously pursuing the vital US objectives in Afghanistan under the Taliban, Afghanistan's neighbors may rethink how they interact with the Taliban. This forces the Taliban to bow to the political, economic, and security demands of the US led by Trump. It seems that by pursuing such a policy, Trump will have more opportunities to destroy the Asian axis. From here, he will seize this opportunity and reorient himself to Afghanistan;
SEVENTH, Trump does not pay attention to the symbolic and popular issues of previous US policies, such as democracy, human and women's rights, the right to education and labor, and the imposition of American values. The vital interests of the United States are at the forefront of Trump and his team's calculations. Without changing the path of the US's basic policy on the Afghan issue and the US strategy to destabilize Asia, Trump can increasingly enter into favorable political deals with the Taliban and again fill the empty space of Afghanistan with the US. This is by no means a return of US troops to Afghanistan. The main goal is to use the Taliban card to protect the vital interests of the United States in the region. In this regard, the issue of the Bagram air base being under US control may become one of the country's main goals in implementing this strategy;
EIGHTH, for a superpower like the United States, not only domestic issues are important, but also a presence in strategic and geopolitical regions such as Afghanistan. From this point of view, Afghanistan is considered an important and indisputable issue in the US plans to continue the global fight against its rivals;
NINTH, by sending a signal to the US's rivals on the Asian axis and recognizing the issue that is mentioned in the fundamentalist views, existential and imperialist philosophy of the US, the Americans want to make it known that they will never give up regions of great strategic and geopolitical importance that once belonged to the US. Afghanistan is one of the regions that is considered an important and indispensable issue for the US to continue the global fight against its rivals. The war with the Asian axis requires influence and a soft presence in Afghanistan;
TENTH, Trump's team, which includes the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Advisor, the CIA Director, and senior members of his administration, have been largely involved in the war in Afghanistan in one way or another. His team has also repeatedly criticized President Biden's policy towards Afghanistan over the past three years. Hence, it is believed that he took the collective decision of the United States seriously. Trump cannot think separately from his team. If he does so and, as in the previous period, we see the resignation of the leaders of his team, he will be no different from Biden, and his criticism will be only symbolic. Trump does not want to leave behind such an unsuccessful legacy as Biden.
In any case, Afghanistan, due to its sensitive location, the new stage of the game of world powers, the battle between East and West, the transformation of the international system towards a post-polar system, and the greed of countries for access to the untapped resources of Central Asia, will force Trump and his team to look at the country again. There is no doubt that the return of the United States to Afghanistan is not in the interests of the Afghan people. The only beneficiaries in this game are the technocrats of Afghanistan, the Taliban, and regional powers, as well as the US and its allies. The bloody game in the interests of the great powers has and will have a suitable field, such as Afghanistan. The defenseless people of Afghanistan have always been the unwitting victims of the policies of the great and hostile powers.
