The failure of the “regional party” in competition with the “Doha party” was quite predictable.
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics (Russia)
Representatives of the Taliban government will take part in the international meeting of special representatives for Afghanistan, which will be held in the capital of Qatar, Doha, in late June - early July.
Although this third Doha format conference is formally held under the auspices of the UN, its main operators are the United States and its allies.
That is why there is de facto competition between initiatives and projects related to Afghanistan between the operators of the Doha format, on the one hand, and the regional pool of states, on the other hand. The latter use the Moscow format platform, as well as various other consultations, forums, conferences, etc., to demonstrate their interests with the participation of Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and the Central Asian republics.
In recent months, Doha and the regionals have been especially active in trying to win over the Taliban - each to their own side.
The Dohians did not really like the Taliban's contacts with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.
The regionals, in turn, were jealous of the Taliban towards the Americans and the Doha format.
The Taliban tried to play on these contradictions whenever possible, trying to use them for their own benefit - seeking political recognition and financial investments in their “emirate.”
In recent weeks, the rivalry between Doha and the regionals for the hearts and souls of the Taliban has become especially intense.
Russia, in particular, tried to play its last trump card in the form of removing the Taliban from the national blacklist of terrorist organizations, transparently hinting at the likely and speedy political recognition of the regime of the “fierce mullahs.” And all in order to fasten the Taliban to a regional leash.
However, the idea failed. The Taliban sadly thanked Moscow for its kind words and intentions, sent sixes in colorful outfits to the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, and... refused to come to Tehran for a meeting of regional special representatives for Afghanistan, which was held within the framework of the Moscow format project.
It is noteworthy that the “father” of Mosformat, the special representative of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, who was replaced there by the Russian Ambassador in Kabul Dmitry Zhirnov, did not come to Tehran.
Despite this political punch on the nose from the Taliban, the regionals hoped that the Dohaites would also be unlucky, that the Taliban would ignore Doha-3, which would be lit by the Americans and their Western and Eastern allies.
However, a miracle did not happen: the Taliban today confirmed their participation in the Doha format in a couple of weeks, explaining this by the interest in receiving investments and humanitarian assistance.
Obviously, thereby making it clear that you won’t get this happiness from the regionals, and you won’t be satisfied with exclusions from the blacklists of terrorist organizations.
Of course, the Taliban will continue to adhere to their “seesaw” tactics, maneuvering and capitalizing on the conflict of interests of the Americans and Dohas, on the one hand, and the regionals, on the other.
But the Taliban, undoubtedly, have already made their real choice - they remain with those who first helped them come to power in 2021, and then hold on to it for almost three years: this is the United States and their international partners.
The failure of the “regional party” in competition with the “Doha party” was quite predictable. As we have noted more than once, regional countries have not been able to formulate an integral and long-term strategy regarding Afghanistan, and Mosformat has long since exhausted itself and is not a real competitor to American projects regarding Afghanistan.
This reality must be recognized - as the leaders of the Russian Foreign Ministry advise us, although in other cases. And not just admit it, but radically change it, unless, of course, Moscow wants to lose a new round of the “great game.”
We recently proposed one of the possible scenarios for responding to the situation. Those interested can familiarize themselves with it at this link:
