Afghanistan is now becoming a source of instability for the countries of Central Asia and Russia.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, researcher of security and geopolitics, especially for "Sangar"
Russia should know that the Taliban is not a reliable element and this lack of trust will create a big security hole if the mistakes of the past are repeated. The Taliban is absolutely an element against the interests of Russia. There is no logical possibility of a strategic alliance and mutual cooperation between Russia and the Taliban, who are considered an element that disrupts security in the region.
Recently, Russia has announced that it has invited the Taliban to the upcoming meeting of the Moscow format, which will focus on Afghanistan issues. While last year, the Taliban group was not invited to participate in this meeting. The Moscow meeting, which has been held for four times so far, represents Russia's active diplomacy towards Afghanistan issues. But despite knowing the nature of the Taliban, the Russians are trying to find more opportunities to pursue alternative policies of the Taliban. It is well known that the Taliban is a breeding ground for terrorism in the region and this group can be better known when they are recognized. With the recognition of this group, the ground will be favorable for the recognition of terrorism in the region. Terrorism that intends to use a vast geography for the greater purposes of the great powers. Nevertheless, Moscow should seriously examine the challenges in Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban. In this regard, Moscow's decision should be a measure of many geopolitical challenges. Currently, the Russian Federation is facing two major challenges in Afghanistan: firstly, the restoration of the chaotic geopolitical order of the new world order led by the US, with Afghanistan at the center of it in Asia; Based on that, he had based his policies in Asia.
The geopolitical order that remained from the remnants of the Soviet presence in the region was completely destroyed. America was able to destroy this order with the cooperation of the countries of Pakistan, Black Sea and Caspian, Transcaucasia, Eastern Europe and even Russia. In addition, the US military presence has increased the country's political and ideological influence in the region, which has caused concerns in Russia, China and Iran later.
Indeed, the deployment of troops in Afghanistan and Iraq made the United States the dominant power in Eurasia. Realizing this, Russia has concerns about the absence of America in Afghanistan and the region today. These concerns are the result of America's presence in the region for twenty years. The growth of extremism, drug trafficking, separatism, religious extremism and multinational terrorism are the main indicators of this security and strategic concern of Russia in the region. Certainly, the Taliban cannot solve these concerns of Moscow, nor does it have the ability to do so.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan has become the center of gravity of these concerns after the withdrawal of America. The presence of the Taliban in power and their alliance with twenty international terrorist groups that threaten the security of the region and the whole world is the turning point of Russia's security policies in Afghanistan. Although Russia has had a good middle ground with the Taliban and continues to protect its interests and nationals in Afghanistan with intelligence communications, the internal realities of Afghanistan and the challenges of the Taliban in controlling their allied foreign terrorist groups, which require a strong guarantee that no Threatening Russia's interests in Afghanistan and the region has another bitter message.
At the beginning of America's presence in Afghanistan, Russia gave a green light and continued to provide logistics and security support to this presence, but with the passage of time and the confrontation with America in other parts of the world, this policy changed in nature and the intention of the Russians It changed against the Americans.
By deepening their relations with the Taliban, the Russians wanted to reduce the presence of the Americans in Afghanistan little by little and left the way for America to leave. America left Afghanistan and the Russians and Chinese reached their strategic goal. Now, both the Chinese and the Russians have realized that an Afghanistan free of America, even after twenty years of military presence, is nothing but an Afghanistan sinking into chaos. Al-Qaeda, which orchestrated the 9/11 attacks, was quickly defeated, but the Taliban, which had given them sanctuary, are still the most powerful force in the country and will likely soon become a US-backed government in Kabul.
What is even more worrisome is the growing presence of extremists under the name of ISIS and other groups that have caused such problems to Afghanistan's neighbors after the withdrawal of the United States and its allies. Because the Americans created the geopolitical order that they were the guarantor of, they messed it up with their unpredictable exit and made the main cause of the security disorder, which was the Taliban and their allies, the conqueror of the field with billions of dollars of military equipment.
The Russians realized that it is no longer possible to enter into a tactical interaction with the Taliban and maintain their interests. Now the Taliban, having a political power in Afghanistan, have become the owner of this country. This interaction should turn into a basic policy based on the strategic vision of the future so that it can both provide the interests of the Russians in the long term and be a guarantee for an Afghanistan free of danger for Russia; That too in the phase after the presence of the Americans in the region.
Realizing this importance, the Russians are trying to make this policy more scientific, and their entire agenda, the comprehensive examination of post-American Afghanistan, depends on extremist groups such as the Taliban and their terrorist allies.
Post-America Afghanistan, Afghanistan is a safe nest for terrorists whose only next goal is to challenge the security of the Central Asian region, but South and West Asia.
In short, Afghanistan is now becoming a source of instability for Central Asian countries and Russia. In spite of all its other aspects, during the last two decades, the presence of the Americans could not contain the radical radical forces in Afghanistan and did not strengthen the authority of the authorities in Kabul, but this trend of increasing extremism in Afghanistan, after the withdrawal America will get out of this country very fast. As a result, cross-border extremist groups such as ISIS, Islamic movements of Central Asian countries and the Caucasus, Arabs and Chechens will have more freedom of action and will most likely turn Afghanistan into a base to destabilize Central Asia. . This is the principle of the issue regarding empowering the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The threat to Central Asian countries and Russia's security environment can be a warning for the entire region. Russia has understood this issue and is trying to solve this issue first by interacting with the Taliban, but it is not oblivious to the necessary military preparations on the borders of Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan. In addition to the political interaction with the Taliban, he has on the table defensive and offensive military options to prevent any kind of danger caused by the movements of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and monitors the situation carefully. In addition, with the passing of years of American presence, Afghanistan has become a major drug producer, which reaches its main market, Russia, by passing through Central Asia.
After the US withdrawal, it is unlikely that this situation will change. Drugs, like terrorism, have created a security problem for the security environment of the entire Central Asia region. While Russia has been fighting against it for years and trying to prevent the addiction of millions of young Russians in this dangerous trap.
The Taliban are not strong enough to establish their power throughout the country and provide the necessary security guarantees for Russia and other neighbors. That is, the Taliban, despite their terrorist nature, have become a bitter reality that cannot be ignored.
From the point of view of Russia and Central Asia, the Taliban will not cause problems, as long as they operate within the borders of Afghanistan, do not shelter international extremists, and do not turn to drug trafficking. However, the main facts show something else. The main foundation of Taliban's economic and financial nutrition is drugs, and their alliance with other terrorist groups forms the basis of their war structure. So, how is it possible for the Taliban to destroy these two economic and military resources to satisfy Russia and other Afghan neighbors, in a situation where many security and military threats, along with political threats, target the Taliban's rule and every time. These threats may become major challenges to their regime.
But the Russians have made predictions in this regard. Both Russia and Central Asian countries have enough resources to contain possible military and terrorist threats from inside Afghanistan. These sources include the armed forces of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, both of which border Afghanistan. The Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and the Central Military District of Russia, which has its headquarters in Yekaterinburg, are in charge of the administration of this region. Also, the armed forces and infrastructure of Kazakhstan should not be forgotten. Coordination of these measures can be done within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, or at the level of bilateral relations. Also, there is an effort to cooperate with Turkmenistan, which has a long border with Afghanistan.
In the meantime, Russian intelligence services should play a more important role with Central Asian countries that share a border with Afghanistan and there is a possibility of terrorists infiltrating from their territory to Russia. Their task should be as follows: preventing the infiltration of extremists (including those who pretend to be refugees) from Afghanistan to Central Asia and from there to Russia, suppressing the spread of extremist ideology, combating drug trafficking, through which Financing of terrorism is done, preventing terrorist attacks and so on. The importance of coordination of intelligence services within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization is not less than military coordination. The Secretaries of the National Security Council of member states and their staff should be in constant contact with each other, perhaps in a special format specifically dedicated to problems related to Afghanistan.
The deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan will become a serious test for the National Security Treaty Organization, which must prove that this organization can guarantee the security of the region. This organization can be revived with new joint exercises, better security coordination and information sharing.
Controlling the borders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan is very important, after all, it is the first line of defense of Central Asia and Russia. The success of Russia's policy in Afghanistan will depend on a quick understanding of the rapidly changing situation. There are some fields in this regard, but they should be developed more. Russians are trying hard to consider military preparations in addition to political actions. Therefore, the Russians are well aware that it is needed for work; Military-security actions and movements should be coordinated with political efforts. Because for this policy, in fact, it will establish the principle of balance in both policies and will give the Russians a more open hand regarding the pursuit of Afghanistan's affairs. But if the Russians make a mistake this time and count on the Taliban and their allies, they will make a strategic mistake and their security will face serious risks.
