Why and how did Pakistan lose the Taliban - ISI's proxy army?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
The recent statements of the Prime Minister of Pakistan, regarding the formation of a legitimate government in Afghanistan, have aroused many speculations. For example, has Pakistan really remained so weak that it is seeking to change the current situation in Afghanistan from such a weak position? Or that Pakistan is still playing a new intelligence game to seize the opportunity for the continuation and survival of the Taliban in power.
Taliban have been the main fighting and proxy force in the service of Pakistan's strategic goals. The foundation of this group is directly related to the economic, political and security interests of Pakistan. Now, how is it that after the success in the field of Afghanistan, which has been given to Pakistan after forty years, this country wants to establish a legitimate government? Basically, in the formation of a legitimate government, which interests of Pakistan are provided that the Taliban are not able to provide?
One thing is clear that Pakistan has had problems with all the political systems of Afghanistan since its inception. The border issue, hydro-politics about the water of the Kunar Sea, the strategic depth of this country, which includes political, economic and security, competition with the countries of the region, Afghan markets and reaching the Central Asian markets for Pakistani goods and access to Central Asian energy for Pakistan is one of the main targets. Now what made this country turn away from the Taliban? By examining several possibilities, the writer evaluates the recent statements of the interim Prime Minister of Pakistan as follows:
First, Pakistan may have been disappointed with the complete control over the Taliban and the guidance of this group in order to secure its interests. Because now the Taliban are trying to establish relations with powerful countries, such as America, European Union, China, Russia and India, in a smart way. This work is not going according to Pakistan's wishes. Meanwhile, the split within the Taliban allows different players from the region and beyond the region to recruit this group for their long-term political goals. Such work is no longer in Pakistan's interest;
Second, it is possible that by launching this new political game, Pakistan is trying to follow the new road map of the United Nations, in which the establishment of a comprehensive constitution and government and Afghanistan's transformation into an active member of the international community are emphasized. to pave the way for his active role. Because Pakistan has understood that the Taliban regime may not last for a long time and that there may be plans from the great powers, it wants to show itself in line with the policies of the great powers and the region. In the eyes of Pakistanis, at such a stage, full support for the Taliban group is useless;
Third, the Kanar water issue is very important for Pakistan. In addition, the issue of reaching the markets of Central Asia and the security of Pakistan's energy, which must be provided from Central Asia, is one of the most important and vital issues for Pakistan and its vulnerable economy. Recently, the Taliban renewed the contract with the Chinese for a water dam in Kunar and they want to direct water to Helmand. If this program is implemented, an international rate of $2 per cubic meter of water has been set; it can provide a great economic benefit to the regime under the sanctions of this group that Afghanistan has the possibility of selling 30 billion cubic meters of water per year; If we consider the international rate which is 2 dollars. It can be 60 billion dollars per year. In addition, if Bandar Bargh on the Kunar Sea is settled, a lot of water will be managed and the national income of Afghanistan will increase several times. Meanwhile, at least 13 to 15 billion cubic meters of water is withdrawn from Afghanistan every year; that too without its provisions and price in accordance with international standards. The annual average amount of surface water in the Kabul-Kunar sea basin is 17.1 billion cubic meters, which is less than 14% of the country's total annual water. Now, about 5.4 billion cubic meters of this amount of water has been used and the remaining 11.8 billion cubic meters are imported into Pakistan.
Fourth - Pakistan is extremely afraid of the self-sufficiency of the Taliban who have always been in control of this country. Water resources, a transit route through Afghanistan in the region that the Taliban are trying to establish, the group's contact with China, interaction with America and other countries, in the long run, will pull the Taliban out of Pakistan's complete monopoly and make Pakistan's historical investments a role. on the water Therefore, Pakistan's efforts are always to maintain the necessary and timely pressure on the Taliban so that this group remains in control of this country;
Fifth - The issue of Pashtuns and the desire of the Taliban to create a large Pashtunistan is always a source of concern for Pakistan. It is the effort of this country that the Taliban continue to refrain from the idea of Pashtun unity on the other side of the border under the pressure of this country.
Pakistan is always concerned about its security, economic and political interests in Afghanistan, and the logic of supporting terrorism in the last twenty years and even before that from Mujahideen groups has been to protect these interests. The benefits that guarantee the political, economic and security life of Pakistan and its lack of education will lead to the political, economic and political collapse of this country in critical conditions;
Sixth - Pakistan is afraid of the strongly nationalist idea of some fanatical Pashtun circles among the Taliban. If these circles find the right opportunity, they can play a more effective role in the drive for independence and the right to protection of Pashtuns and lead to many security and political problems for the political and security system of Pakistan. In order to prevent the unification, Pakistan does not see the continuation of the Taliban regime in its interest. Many strongly criticize Pakistan's security policy, which has cast a heavy shadow on the country's diplomacy, and consider it the cause of the deterioration of the security situation, the strengthening of the Taliban group, and the creation of a hostile mindset of the Afghan people against Pakistan. In the eyes of Pakistanis, control of Afghanistan has always been a priority. But this policy has resulted in opposite results and has led to a security threat to Pakistan itself. Experts say that the purpose of such actions by Pakistan is to put pressure on the Taliban government, which is stuck in Pakistan's security policy towards Afghanistan. A policy full of mistakes and overreach that has only resulted in the promotion of extremism, terrorism and the creation of drug and weapon trafficking networks. Now let's see to what extent these statements can affect the views and policies of Pakistanis towards Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban, the survival of this group in political power and the decision to support or not support it, and lead to a paradigm shift in Pakistan's policy toward Afghanistan.