No Islamic country is behind Iran.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, an analyst on Afghanistan and regional issues (Germany), especially for Sangar
After Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, many analysts, including myself, believed that Iran would take revenge on Israel for this act and organize an attack on Israel. But over time, it seems that Iran does not want to go to war with Israel directly, and the following reasons can be given for Iran's reluctance to go to war:
1 - Lack of consensus among Iranian government officials. Intra-governmental disagreements are one important reason. In particular, Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of Iran, appears reluctant to attack Israel directly and may prefer to use other means of response, especially proxy groups, rather than war.
2 - Lack of public support. Polls show a majority of Iranians do not support a direct attack on Israel. Such public reluctance can lead to pressure on the authorities to avoid direct conflict, which is what happened.
3 - Economic weakness. Iran's economic situation is such that it cannot withstand the high costs of war. Domestic economic problems, including sanctions and the financial crisis, have created many restrictions for Iran.
4 - Lack of modern equipment. Iran has sufficient access to modern military equipment, including drones, which are necessary to counter Israeli forces. But there is a lack of other modern equipment with which Iran could control Israel.
5 - Proxy groups can help Iran, but only if Iran supports them in every possible way, such as Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis, who need Iran's help one after another and can cause many problems for Israel over time.
6 - American economic sanctions. Economic sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran have put great pressure on Iran's economy and likely influenced its military decisions.
7 - Lack of support from Islamic countries. Arab countries in particular do not support direct conflict with Israel, and even some Islamic countries have said that we are intercepting Iranian missiles from our airspace. This decision could cause headaches for Iran.
8 - Iran's economic vulnerability. Iran's vulnerable economic position and its implications for the region, especially if other countries intervene, could put Iran in a difficult position and increase the high costs of war.
9 - Lack of full support from Russia. The Russian Federation, due to the pressure of the war in Ukraine and the presence of Russian Jews in Israel, does not want Iran and Israel to fight. This issue could have a significant impact on Iran's decision to go to war with Israel.
10 - Finally, isolation in case of action. If Iran were to come into direct conflict with Israel, it could face international isolation and backlash. For this reason, it is not far off that the Iranian authorities decided to directly support the strengthening of puppet groups, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and several other groups directed against Israel.
Without a doubt, Iran will stand behind these groups Iran believes that the lack of support from Islamic countries, especially Arab countries, has left it alone in this arena, and Iran knows that no leader of an Islamic country will support Iran and does not support attacks on Israel.