The United States and England are counting on Pakistan's leading role in promoting a new great game in Central Asia.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
In the current global interactions between powers and quasi-powers, the meaning of alliances has completely changed. The situation has become such that there is no alliance between global and regional powers and independent players who can set roles in interactions, and temporary alliances with dishonesty and game tricks between influential players are a custom. It is common and it is that the problem of Afghanistan has remained suspended.
America, Britain, Pakistan, and the West are on one side of the issue and support the Taliban, and Russia China, and Iran are on the other side of the issue, between supporting the Taliban and trying to replace it. Confusion and uncertainty about the fate of Afghanistan as a variable dependent on the independent variable of the regional and global systems, based on the lack of these alliances among different players, is noticeable. America, England, the West, and Pakistan will never be included in the same container.
On the other hand, the apparent situation between Russia, Iran, and China is not a state of unity; A strategy that is decisive. According to what can be seen in relation to the situation and fate of Afghanistan, the temporary coalition is based on security and economic interests in an individual and exclusive manner. Suspicions, security perceptions, and instrumental use of the situation and situations that have arisen show that there is no long-term plan for Afghanistan and the region.
Pakistan and China agree on a strategic understanding of the maintenance of the Taliban and have created a triangle of deep intellectual interaction on the Taliban option. Pakistan has played an effective role in China's proximity to the Taliban and has pushed both to the limit of security and economic trust. While the same Pakistan is included in the strategic plan of America and England. All three sides of this game have a shared opinion on strengthening and maintaining the Taliban in power. In this account, some kind of contradiction and conflict of views between China and the other two sides such as England and America is missing. This state of confusion and ambiguity is caused by the complexity of the game.
In a security bilateral, Iran and Russia are thinking about the possible options of creating an axis of resistance in the north and west of Afghanistan. However, this idea is still considered one of the two options for the future role of these countries in Afghanistan's interactions. China has formed an alliance with Russia and Iran on major global issues. While in the case of Afghanistan, it takes a different and separate path.
America and England have counted on the management role of Pakistan to advance the new big game in Central Asia. These opening accounts on Pakistan's option have been suspended for the time being due to the tension and deterioration of the political and security situation in Pakistan and are experiencing a waiting state.
Pakistan plays with all factions; Both China and England and America. Iran is in a consultation with Pakistan to secure and maintain its security interests by intensifying Baluch attacks. The security puzzle surrounding Afghanistan, although apparently in the group of temporary coalitions, but what was said, the security puzzle between regional and extra-regional players has given more space for the Taliban. Many prominent players in the field of Afghanistan, of course, have started working in the foreign dimension and by creating networks; they are trying to create a platform for cooperation and competition. These networks are made of the basic military and political elements, technocrats, and the most powerful information channel at the external level.
The policy of channelization and use of local capacities has given good results. The Taliban, who hold political power, are themselves a perfect example of a channel created by intelligence agencies. It is for this reason that political movements and movements in the field of Afghanistan, after the fall of the republic, are in a functional bottleneck, and due to the lack of interest of regional and extra-regional players, no one is counting on them.
Despite the fact that Russia and China are of the same opinion in changing the nature of the international system from the purely American order to the desired multipolar one, they have opened separate accounts on the issue of Afghanistan. In the meantime, Iran has a practical aspect in accordance with its capabilities in the battlefield and politics. At the same time, Pakistan and Iran are trying to disrupt any previous agreement with the Taliban, which is supposed to be made between China, Russia, America, and the Westerners, by using the cards of Afghan immigrants. It may not be difficult to imagine that the issue of immigrants itself is the security aspect of Afghanistan's political issue.
With big accounts and countless expenses and incomes, China is keeping its sharp eyes on Afghanistan's mines, markets, and fields. This country is trying to use Afghanistan, which works as a transit hub, through the economic and financial cards. The Russians are concerned about the security situation, the number of terrorist groups in the north and northeast of Afghanistan, the increase in drug trafficking, and the establishment of close ties between the Taliban and China, Pakistan, and Iran at the same time.
The role of the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom is not the same. Despite the fact that all three countries move in the same line of thinking about Afghanistan, they differ in many cases. Many European and American countries have close relations with the Taliban and benefit from unconventional information exchanges.
The Iranians are trying to use the dormant capacities of the Afghan field, which are considered important for the role of this country, with various excuses, water, border tensions, and the creation of terrorist groups that are financed by the Taliban. For example, Fatemiyoon, Shia parties, resistance groups, and political groups and factions that were previously supported by this country.
Pakistan is deeply concerned about the increasing role of TTP as an independent security player and that this option could be available to the region. In this sense, it is trying to gather the various options of Taliban opponents and mainly non-Pashtun elements in a new circuit, so that tomorrow if the Taliban turn their backs on Islamabad's security interests, it will use this option and protect its interests. The relations of fugitive and jihadi leaders of Afghanistan, who are in opposition to the Taliban and outside Afghanistan, have warmed with Pakistan. Some Taliban leaders have direct communication with Pakistan and move according to its political and security agendas. But a number of others, from being purely Pakistani, have come out and have learned to serve regional and extra-regional interests. This issue is very worrying for Islamabad and it is based on the fact that Pakistan is trying to find possible alternatives for the Taliban.
The total game space available in the field of Afghanistan shows that temporary coalitions between regional and extra-regional players have only a security and precautionary form. In the security dimension, the security puzzle creates a strong role in the structures and perceptions of each player from others. In the political dimension, there is no plan for the future; Except for the security programs that are detrimental to the order and security of the region and each player advances it according to their own interests.
Everyone is trying to put the possible option of selective interaction on the agenda by using the Taliban card. In the extra-regional dimension, as it is thought, the issue of Afghanistan is related to the issues of other parts of the world and has a pending character. This country is both a political playground and a field of informational and war conflicts, and it has the characteristic of waiting for the next points to be scored.
It turns out that the temporary coalitions in this country are security coalitions and it is the sense of pessimism that created these coalitions, not the political thought that will lead to an alliance between the governments and the players. So temporary security alliances have become an alternative to constructive political alliances that can be a guarantee for the future of the region.
There is no hope to improve the situation in Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban, and this group continues its autocratic rule and sheds more blood every day. Bigotry and bigotry in the existence of this petrified group are becoming more rooted every day, and the region, because its interests are in the group's performance, shows a positive face to it. Extra region that is the founder of this group and will do everything possible to keep it in political power.